Scenario 2
A sudden sobering. The political establishment comes to terms with the set of challenges resulting from the prolonged conflict. These include the devaluation of fundamental European values such as dialogue, cooperation, and respect for diverse perspectives. There is a negative transformation of European institutions and economies, damaging the interests of current and future generations alike (lower standards of living along with waning prospect of the green transition). The growing conflict between values, backed by economic arguments, calls for an end to the conflict through an acceptable peace solution. Moreover, the earlier this peace is achieved, the lower the financial and symbolic costs will be.
Barrier to implementation
The high level of investment in the conflict and associated systemic political decisions pose significant political risks to the current elites in case of a sudden reversal (acknowledging their own shortcomings).