The Abduction Of Europe
The current situation in Europe has reached a deadlock, unless a process of rebuilding the system of relations between the EU and its key stakeholders is undertaken.
The current situation in Europe has reached a deadlock, unless a process of rebuilding the system of relations between the EU and its key stakeholders is undertaken. However, this reboot will face challenges due to the lack of leadership and agency.
The amount of funds invested in the war no longer allows the EU to write off losses without achieving a significant outcome. At the same time, prolonged conflict increases investment in its continuation, making it more difficult to pursue a “clean slate” approach.
Simultaneously with an increase in investment in the war, there has been a loss of economic stability. Europe has faced several challenges, including the impact of the military conflict, the difficulties of the energy transition, the need to renew fixed assets during a new technological cycle, and the delayed effects of the pandemic-era monetary policies. Their cumulative effect has not yet led to a major crisis, but it has left no resources for significant growth.
The advantages of relying on the combination of advanced technology and cheap energy resources from Russia have been lost. This loss of economic incentives has ushered in a process of deindustrialization, with production shifting to the United States and Asia, and a general decrease in investment activity.
In the long term, the challenge is the loss of ideas and basic drivers of growth, which are essential for economic progress.
The amount of funds invested in the war no longer allows the EU to write off losses without achieving a significant outcome. At the same time, prolonged conflict increases investment in its continuation, making it more difficult to pursue a “clean slate” approach.
Simultaneously with an increase in investment in the war, there has been a loss of economic stability. Europe has faced several challenges, including the impact of the military conflict, the difficulties of the energy transition, the need to renew fixed assets during a new technological cycle, and the delayed effects of the pandemic-era monetary policies. Their cumulative effect has not yet led to a major crisis, but it has left no resources for significant growth.
The advantages of relying on the combination of advanced technology and cheap energy resources from Russia have been lost. This loss of economic incentives has ushered in a process of deindustrialization, with production shifting to the United States and Asia, and a general decrease in investment activity.
In the long term, the challenge is the loss of ideas and basic drivers of growth, which are essential for economic progress.
What can fundamentally drive the European economy forward?
Expansion into new markets?
Positions in these markets are weakening, as production costs are increasing and there have been no technological breakthroughs.
The “Europe to the Pacific” initiative?
This idea has lost relevance due to geopolitical factors.
Energy transition and carbon neutrality?
There is a shift towards traditional energy sources, with a revision of company strategies in a more conservative direction.
Increased military spending and “military Keynesianism”?
The high level of reliance on the United States will prevent this sector from becoming a growth driver.
Rebooting Europe on the basis of a new political landscape and growing popularity of Eurosceptics and right-wing political parties. This trend does not lead to a significant change of the political landscape. Parliamentary and economic mechanisms provide a means to block the entry of non-mainstream parties, even if they achieve relative success in elections. As a result, the political stalemate persists, with the old elites maintaining power but lacking an alternative vision.
This situation has resulted in European leaders experiencing the mortido syndrome, a phenomenon described in psychoanalysis and referring to a specific type of psycho-social energy that originates from the unconscious desire for self-destruction. The completion of the globalization process and the emergence of relatively autonomous macro-regions have left the European Union in a weaker position compared to other competitive markets.
However, the inability to find a solution within the current framework does not mean that searching in a wider context is hopeless. A fundamental reorganization of international relations, rejection of neo-colonial policies, and cultural snobbery could open up new perspectives for Europe. If Europe cannot continue playing in the old framework, it must try to create a new one.
One feature of the current political landscape in Europe is the lack of long-term foresight. There is no planning for future scenarios that could lead to different strategies regarding the military conflict. At the same time, the rate of ontological and value-related shifts in the world makes the idea of reversing the current situation and returning to a “lost world” unfeasible.
Let us consider several possible outcomes if the conflict continues over the next few years towards the EU’s declared goal of defeating Russia militarily (which currently seems unlikely).
This situation has resulted in European leaders experiencing the mortido syndrome, a phenomenon described in psychoanalysis and referring to a specific type of psycho-social energy that originates from the unconscious desire for self-destruction. The completion of the globalization process and the emergence of relatively autonomous macro-regions have left the European Union in a weaker position compared to other competitive markets.
However, the inability to find a solution within the current framework does not mean that searching in a wider context is hopeless. A fundamental reorganization of international relations, rejection of neo-colonial policies, and cultural snobbery could open up new perspectives for Europe. If Europe cannot continue playing in the old framework, it must try to create a new one.
One feature of the current political landscape in Europe is the lack of long-term foresight. There is no planning for future scenarios that could lead to different strategies regarding the military conflict. At the same time, the rate of ontological and value-related shifts in the world makes the idea of reversing the current situation and returning to a “lost world” unfeasible.
Let us consider several possible outcomes if the conflict continues over the next few years towards the EU’s declared goal of defeating Russia militarily (which currently seems unlikely).
Scenario 1
Lack of development drivers, loss of strategic vision, and, consequently, further marginalization of Europe – increased US dominance and loss of political agency. This scenario benefits a number of European countries aligned with the United States, particularly those on the Eastern European flank. In fact, it is removing Europe from the stage as an independent geopolitical player.
Barrier to implementation
The possibility of a political crisis within the United States and the lack of preparedness on the part of some European leaders to deal with it.
Barrier to implementation
The possibility of a political crisis within the United States and the lack of preparedness on the part of some European leaders to deal with it.
Scenario 2
A sudden sobering. The political establishment comes to terms with the set of challenges resulting from the prolonged conflict. These include the devaluation of fundamental European values such as dialogue, cooperation, and respect for diverse perspectives. There is a negative transformation of European institutions and economies, damaging the interests of current and future generations alike (lower standards of living along with waning prospect of the green transition). The growing conflict between values, backed by economic arguments, calls for an end to the conflict through an acceptable peace solution. Moreover, the earlier this peace is achieved, the lower the financial and symbolic costs will be.
Barrier to implementation
The high level of investment in the conflict and associated systemic political decisions pose significant political risks to the current elites in case of a sudden reversal (acknowledging their own shortcomings).
Barrier to implementation
The high level of investment in the conflict and associated systemic political decisions pose significant political risks to the current elites in case of a sudden reversal (acknowledging their own shortcomings).
Scenario 3
A change in political leadership in several countries, with the rise of a conservative faction that is inclined towards strict pragmatism and a return to rational self-interest.
Barrier to implementation
The manageable democratic process in Europe may block and marginalize the new conservative wave, preventing it from translating its growing popularity into real political influence
Barrier to implementation
The manageable democratic process in Europe may block and marginalize the new conservative wave, preventing it from translating its growing popularity into real political influence
Scenario 4
Growing tensions within the European Union and increasing contradictions between its member states. This could lead to a fundamental review of the rules governing interaction or even a split within the organization. Although the conflict itself may not be the primary cause of the split, it could activate existing tensions and contradictions. This scenario has two potential outcomes:
Option 1
In the event of a crisis of the European project, the participants demonstrate determination to find a compromise and take measures to reduce the level of conflict on the continent and seek a peaceful resolution.
Barrier to implementation
Similar to Scenario 2.
Option 2
There is a process of regionalization in Europe, with the emergence of several clusters of states developing various political strategies.
Barrier to implementation
At the moment, centripetal trends are dominating centrifugal ones
Option 1
In the event of a crisis of the European project, the participants demonstrate determination to find a compromise and take measures to reduce the level of conflict on the continent and seek a peaceful resolution.
Barrier to implementation
Similar to Scenario 2.
Option 2
There is a process of regionalization in Europe, with the emergence of several clusters of states developing various political strategies.
Barrier to implementation
At the moment, centripetal trends are dominating centrifugal ones
The gravity of the situation stems from the fact that the likelihood of these outcomes is approximately equal, with no clear-cut favourite among them. Furthermore, all of these scenarios, except for Scenario 2 (even Scenario 4.1), would fundamentally alter the future of the European Union.
This leads to a straightforward logical conclusion: the more investment is made in the conflict, the more difficult it will be for Europe to extricate itself from the political, social, and value impasse it finds itself in.
This leads to a straightforward logical conclusion: the more investment is made in the conflict, the more difficult it will be for Europe to extricate itself from the political, social, and value impasse it finds itself in.
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We want to assure you that privacy is of utmost importance to us. Our website does not collect, process, or store any personal data of our users in any form. We are committed to maintaining a safe and secure browsing experience for all.
Your trust is invaluable to us, and we want you to feel confident when interacting with our platform. We do not utilize any marketing trackers or other programs that could potentially identify users. Additionally, our website does not employ data collection forms such as public message submission forms.
If you have any concerns or questions regarding our privacy practices, please don't hesitate to reach out to us.
Thank you for your interest in our website.
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